Erling Moxnes' Home Page

Professor of System Dynamics

System Dynamics Group, Department of Geography

  Go to Department of Geography, System Dynamics Group.

Teaching:

Together with the system dynamics group I teach Courses in System Dynamics (Master Program).

Research:

Here you find a list of my publications.

My main interest lies in understanding why the presumably best policies are often ignored in practical decision-making. By using laboratory experiments among students and professionals I try to make contributions to the emerging literature on misperceptions of dynamic systems (MODS). The MODS literature shows that decision makers oversimplify complex dynamic problems in the direction of static systems, with the result that chosen feedback policies are not only inaccurate but also systematically biased. I have investigated the MODS hypothesis for renewable resources, see my article on fishery management in Management Science for which I received the Jay W. Forrester Award. The results show that the predominant theory of mismanagement, the “tragedy of the commons” is not the only explanation. MODS leads to overutilization and to overinvestment even with no commons problem present, MODS exacerbates the commons problem and it makes the commons problem harder to solve. Understanding why decision makers choose biased policies is both a motivation for doing analysis and it is useful knowledge for information dissemination. MODS is only investigated in a limited number of studies thus far. It seems to have the potential to explain and improve a large number of decisions of great importance to humans, businesses and to society at large. Therefore a continuation of this work seems a most fruitful research program for the coming years. We have made experimental investigations of: overgrazing of reindeer pastures, decision tools for multi-species management, leadership in gaming situations, diffusion of environmental policies, CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere, individual transferable quotas and auctioned seasonal quotas, commodity cycles, environmental taxes, and excessive drinking among juveniles. Repeatedly, we find that delays lead to overshoots and that complexity leads to slow learning.

In another line of research I have worked with stochastic optimization, and I have developed my own practical adaptation to “Stochastic optimization in policy space” (SOPS). In an article in The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, SOPS is used to find optimal management strategies for a fish resource when there is measurement error. This problem has not been properly solved with previous methods. The results show that measurement error is typically more important for harvesting policies than stochastic variation, which has been studied earlier. The paper also provides estimates of the value of measurement accuracy, an estimate of importance for decisions regarding the proper amount of measurement effort. In an article in The Journal of Ecological Modelling SOPS is used to study optimal management of reindeer. In several other reports I have used SOPS to examine other issues in renewable resource management: the importance of accuracy in predictions of environmental changes, harvesting strategies in cohort models, harvesting and investment strategies in a fishery model with fleet dynamics, and harvesting strategies in a two-species model. In a forthcoming article in The System Dynamics Review SOPS is used to study policy sensitivity. SOPS will be a valuable tool for future laboratory experiments in that the method can be used to find optimal or near-to-optimal solutions in non-linear, stochastic, dynamic systems. The method also gives deep insights into the types of dynamic problems that are central in system dynamics education.

Contact information:

Work address:

Department of Geography,

 

University of Bergen, PostBox 7800

 

N-5020 Bergen, Norway

Visiting address:  

Fosswinkelsgate 6,

 

 

Home address:

Sollien 62D,

 

N-5096 Bergen, Norway

Phone:

(+ 47) 5558 4119 (work)

 

(+ 47) 913 11 517(mobile)

 

 

Fax:

(+47) 55583099

E-mail:

Erling.Moxnes 'at' ifi.uib.no

University of Bergen Last updated Oct. 22 2004 by Erling Moxnes
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